2021 NASCAR Schedule – Preview & Extended Outlook
Welcome to the 2021 NASCAR season! This article is based on a November 2020 segment of the Lapped Traffic Podcast, Episode #215, The 2021 NASCAR Preview Show. There are some notable and exciting changes for the 2021 season and you have to wonder if the governing body thought about checking with a meteorologist before committing to these revisions.
This season takes the Cup Series to three new venues: Circuit of the Americas, Nashville Superspeedway, and Road America. We also see changes with Darlington on Mother’s Day weekend (love ya, Mom!), Texas Motor Speedway in June for the All-Star Race, and Atlanta in July.
New dates plus new tracks equals new weather. A look at potential impacts yield insight into what we may be dealing with over at RaceWeather.
Darlington Raceway , May 7-9
The first track on our weather tour is “Too Tough to Tame.” This is the first time since 1978 that the NASCAR schedule included a Cup Series race on Mother’s Day. (In 2007, the Darlington Cup race was run on Mother’s Day after the Saturday night race was rained out.) By moving the race from Labor Day weekend to May, NASCAR did drivers and fans a favor with cooler average temps (82/56) during one of the drier months of the year for that area.
While May is a drier month by climatology standards, rain is possible for the Darlington 400. Downpours occurred prior to the start of the second May 2020 Darlington race. A break in the rain allowed the Cup series to start. With 20 to go, NASCAR called the field to pit road because of rain and never resumed.
Circuit of the Americas , May 22-23
Personally, this is the race I have circled on the 2021 NASCAR schedule. All three series head deep into the heart of Texas for a road course showdown. Normal temperatures for the weekend are 88/68. May is the rainiest month of the year for the Austin area, averaging 4.36”. Austin is in what is known as “Flash Flood Alley” with some of its worst flooding occurring in May, notably the deadly Memorial Day floods of 1981 and 2015. (Author’s note: My son and I were actually in Austin for the 2015 flooding. This view is from South Congress facing south.)
While NASCAR can race in the rain at COTA, most of Austin’s rain during May comes in the form of afternoon airmass thunderstorms. We’ll keep the lightning clock at the ready for this inaugural NASCAR weekend at COTA.
Texas Motor Speedway, June 12-13
The new race date for Texas is a Truck/Xfinity Saturday doubleheader, along with the 25th NASCAR All-Star Race on Sunday night. Both Saturday races are daytime starts with the Xfinity race being the later start, during the hottest part of the day. Average temperatures are 90/70, while the normal rainfall for June is 4.11”.
Similar to COTA, the thunderstorms are generally airmass. This could bring delays to the Xfinity race Saturday afternoon and potentially the All-Star Open on Sunday with its early evening start. Weepers were an issue in the past, pushing the IndyCar race on June 10, 2016 to the following day. The rescheduled event began only to be rained-delayed, resuming in August.
Nashville Superspeedway, June 18-20
NASCAR returns to Music City USA with a full slate for Father’s Day weekend. To answer the perpetual Bob Pockrass question: yes, they have lights. Normal temperatures for this weekend are 87/67. June is middle-of-the-road for monthly rainfall with totals averaging 4.14”.
Road America , July 3-4
While the Xfinity Series has raced at this historic Wisconsin track since 2010, this is the first appearance for the Cup Series in 55 years.
Average temperatures for Independence Day are a pleasant 82/61. You may detect a trend here: July is the second-wettest month of the year, averaging 3.77”. As history shows, NASCAR can and will race in the rain at Road America. While air mass storms make up a good percentage of summer storms, the bigger threat is from mesoscale convective systems (MCS). An MCS can travel hundreds of miles in a day, extend over a hundred miles, and exceed severe thresholds with wind gusts over 70 mph, large hail, and tornadoes. Lightning is a threat as well.
Knoxville (IA) , July 9
Atlanta , July 10 &11
As the Truck Series heads to America’s heartland to play in the dirt, the Xfinity and Cup Series head to Hotlanta. The Knoxville race is scheduled for the evening hours; therefore, it being the hottest month of the year is not that big of an issue. However, July is the third rainiest month of the year. Similar to Road America, both air mass storms and MCS complexes can occur. While air mass storms are generally daytime events, an MCS may occur at any hour of the day. While the dirt oval needs moisture, torrential rain is overkill.
In the Deep South, both races are scheduled for afternoon starts. This July weekend is within 0.1°F of the hottest day of the year with averages of 89/71. NASCAR has also opted to schedule the race during the wettest month of the year. Average monthly rainfall for July is 5.27” with generally air mass storms, though a risk of tropical systems cannot be ruled out.
Conclusions: 2021 NASCAR Schedule
In less than nine months, NASCAR will crown three champions. Whether they’re fan favorites or, to borrow a pro wrestling term, “heels,” I guarantee this season will have its share of surprises. Weather will provide surprises as well, from start delays to shortened or even postponed races. Stay tuned to ExoConsulting to see how we can get your company on track, and check out our weather forecasting group at RaceWeather for race forecasts and real-time updates.
Reach out today and let’s find ways to work together.
Since 2003, ExoConsulting’s founder, Dr. Aaron Studwell, has been providing weather support to the NASCAR community, building his reputation as an effective communicator with a passion for the sport and the people in it. Marketing and Social Media Coordinator Stevie Thompson brings her insight and artistic flair to engage our client base. Together, we provide technical expertise and business insights for client success on and off track. Let’s find ways to work together.
Written by Aaron Studwell, February 9, 2021
Photo Credits: Darlington & Austin, Aaron Studwell, Ph.D., Road America, NASCAR on NBC, Atlanta, Woody Cain, MRN Radio
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